Artificial General Intelligence

One of the key goals of AI is to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems that are capable of reasoning, learning, and adapting to a wide range of tasks and environments, much like humans do.

AGI Characteristics

There are many and varying definitions of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) characteristics. These include:

  • Problem solving

  • Creativity

  • Self awareness

  • Ability to adapt to new environments

  • Empathy

  • Abstract thinking

  • Perception

  • Communication

  • Ability to learn from past experiences

  • Ability to recall and relive memories

  • Ability to plan for the future

  • Autonomy (ability to function without human intervention)

  • Goal-directedness (ability to learn towards achieving specific goals)

  • Ability to apply common sense knowledge

  • Logic and reasoning capabilities

  • Handling uncertain situations

  • Integrating prior knowledge in decision making

AGI Timeframe

Based on the information provided in the search results, there is no consensus on a precise timeframe for developing artificial general intelligence (AGI), but most experts believe it could potentially be achieved within the next few decades to a century. Here are some key points about the expected timelines for AGI from the search results:

A 2016 study polling AI experts found the median predicted timeframe for AGI was 2055, with a wide range from 2030 to 2130. However, the results note that AI models have already surpassed expert predictions for achieving certain milestones like mastering Go.

More recent predictions from AI leaders like Ray Kurzweil (Google) and Demis Hassabis (DeepMind) suggest AGI could arrive as early as 2029 or within the next decade or two (2032-2042). Elon Musk stated he would be surprised if AGI is not developed by 2029.

The search result notes that while some experts predict AGI emerging within the mid-21st century or sooner, others envision a much more extended timeframe, potentially by the year 2200.

According to the Metaculus AI forecasting community, there is a 50/50 chance for AGI to be "devised, tested, and publicly announced" by the year 2040, less than 20 years from now. However, their timelines have become much shorter recently.

This result states that while some AI researchers predict AGI will become a reality in a few decades, another set believes it might be a phenomenon of the next century. Some researchers even think achieving human-level AI is virtually impossible.

In summary, while there is no consensus, many experts and forecasters consider the development of AGI a realistic possibility within the next few decades, potentially as early as 2029 or as late as the end of this century. However, the search results highlight the inherent uncertainty and wide range of predictions surrounding this highly anticipated but challenging milestone in artificial intelligence.