The definition of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) contains elements such as:
the ability of machines to learn and understand at a human level
also referred to as strong AI
achieving some form of consciousness
A Wide Range of Opinions on When AGI Can be Achieved
There are a wide range of predictions on when AGI will be achieved, from a single decade to many decades or longer. Reasons for this include:
exponential growth in many areas of Machine Learning and AI may make an earlier date achievable
promising areas might accelerate progress, including:
an exact definition of AGI ‘human level’ and ‘consciousness’ is difficult to pin down; for example, should it include some harder to achieve aspects such as:
One Survey of Opinions
One survey of AGI predictions is from Nick Bostrom and can be found here. Summary results for responses with a 50% confidence level include:
the median at the year 2040
the average at the year 2081
the discrepancy between the median and average is due to some predictions extending out many decades to never
On the Road to AGI
As we progress along the road to AGI, there will be many advances in Machine Learning and AGI, for example:
applications are expanding at a rapid rate
accuracies are improving substantially
As we get closer to AGI, an exact date and definition may be less important than the wealth generated and benefits to society.